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Thursday 24 July 2014

SOLVING THE ENERGY EQUATION: Challenge 2020

With the burgeoning growth in this technological epoch, another right has been added to the growing list of the rights of men (And women) and that is the right to have electricity. Some may argue that this is baseless and that electricity is still a privilege – a comfort and not a right. I may stand corrected, but, the ubiquitous electric energy run devices tell a different tale. From the farms to the industry, from the small transistor in a hut to the home theatres of multi million rupee homes, all devices today run on electricity. Hence, while the right to education and security against food shortages and hunger are issues at the cynosure of the government’s attention, the increasing usage of electric energy is another major concern that has stayed in the offing for long.

India stands pretty tall in the generation of electricity, coming in third in the list of highest electricity producing nations. With a share of 4.8% of the global electricity generation, India has an installed capacity of 249.5 GW. A sizeable share is the installed renewable energy capacity. However, if you review the world population statistics, India accounts for 17.5% of the global populace.  This is where the energy inequality is laid bare. While the average European boasts a per capita consumption of 6200kWh, the figures in India are dismal, barely reaching 288kWh in urban centres and 96kWh in rural areas (Per capita consumption of electricity is often taken as an indicator of development in the world today.). Roughly, 75.3% of the population has access to electricity which means 300 million citizens in the country have no access to frequent electricity (estimates from 2011) and promptly stay in the dark. Another shocking estimate figures that about one-third of the country’s rural population has no electricity. This brings to mind the news from June 2014 in Haryana, where a village was only able to secure an electric supply 67 years after Independence - a state that prides itself on its industrial growth and development. The situation in other parts of the nation is even worse. Where electricity is provided, connections are unreliable and outages are common throughout the country. More often than not, the capital region experiences shortages of power especially during the summer months.

So, in light of the current situation, why isn’t the government spending heavily on capacity addition? Produce more, to feed most – wasn’t that the ideology behind the Green revolution so that food shortages would become a thing of the past? In theory, if 900 million people are being fed from the 250 GW installed, then add another 85-90 GW and the problem is solved, isn’t it? We might even end up with a surplus! But, calculations in the power sector aren’t as straightforward (one must consider the constraints) and it will be incorrect to say that capacity addition isn’t a priority. In fact, it is – the 12th Five Year Plan sets a target of 88,500 MW (this information has been procured from CEA reports) to be added by 2017 (38 % of which has been achieved) and the total target including renewables is 1,18,000 MW. So, capacity addition isn’t much of a problem. Capacity addition during the 11th five year plan was 260% of the capacity addition during the 10th five year plan. These figures look promising. As electrical engineering undergraduates, there is a common rule of thumb that we are taught – 1MW of capacity addition roughly costs 6 crore INR (need to recheck for inflation). In light of this figure, one can’t blame the government for under-spending in power infrastructure addition. It is safe to say that infrastructure exists, or is being added at a good rate (barring some problems) on the generation side.

Following the generating units, we have the transmission and distribution networks – the lifelines of the country. The T&D network in India is notorious for heavy losses standing at 23.65% in 2011-12.  To put these figures in perspective, 20% of 250GW is 50 GW! i.e. If net power being generated is 250 GW (which isn’t the case) , 50 GW will be lost in transmission and distribution lines. These are termed as technical losses. However, technical losses are not the only ones that result in reduction of power supplied, low metering efficiency, theft & pilferages account for a huge chunk of the power as well. Together, the total of these losses is defined as AT & C – Aggregate Technical and Commercial Loss which was 27% for 2011-12, higher than the previous year’s value. In absolute figures 27% of 250 GW is 67.5 GW! Here, we have identified a major issue in the power sector. This has been recognized by the government institutions and the authority plans to reduce T&D losses to 17% by 2017.  Theft of power as mentioned above is a big problem. Tampering with electricity meters or bypassing them altogether is common in various communities. In recent times, reports from villages in the capital show that officials from distribution companies have been beaten when they have approached such wrongdoers. A Bloomberg report calculates financial losses amounting to $17 Billion in the annual electricity revenue. Stealing power has become easier in the absence of a police team to go on the rounds with the officials to check for faulty meters and connections. While increasing energy costs and poor security measures are prompting more and more people to thieve in the urban areas, it is a rampant practice in rural India where the checks are virtually non-existent. On the technical issue, old networks and a huge distribution system are to blame, adding levels of losses with each bifurcation. Addition of renewable energy sources is an additional problem and they are better suited to supply locally. This is one national issue which requires a huge upheaval and restructuring of infrastructure.

On to the consumers – with increasing costs and high income inequality purchasing electricity takes a big slice out of the monthly budget of the consumers. In the end, suffering and woes of the consumer are foremost and these are issues that must be addressed. Reliability of power is a major issue. Long power cuts due to load shedding and unscheduled interruptions are common even in the wealthiest societies. Due to this, budgets rise as the consumer has to resort to inverters and diesel generators. While inverters add pressure on the grid itself, diesel generators are a concern as they increase the environmental woes. With a significant population in the lower income section, illegal tapping has become a norm. Subsidies and several sensitisation campaigns too, have failed to prompt the consumer to mend his/her ways. Poor reliability has become such a major issue that talk of power quality has all but been suspended in certain areas and remains a mere speculation in the reality of the grid condition.

While such big problems persist, various hurdles are also faced intermittently by the energy sector. Availability of coal for thermal power plants has been a big headache and the government has had to step in repeatedly to solve issues of coal shortage. Various subsidies on import of coal are also provided. Several hydropower projects face the wrath of the public for submerging large areas and uprooting communities from their homes and as such have prolonged delays in construction and commissioning. Following the big black out in 2012, though several measures have been taken to render the national grid more reliable, a lot of work is still pending to this effect. From the environmental point of view too, the situation is not promising. About 800 million consumers continue using traditional biomass energy sources like fuel wood, agricultural waste and livestock dung for cooking and other domestic purposes. This leads to indoor air pollution and is a significant cause of deaths in the country. The oil, natural gas and coal fired plants are inefficient and produce up to 120% more CO2 per kWH compared to their EU contemporaries. Ecological destruction is the biggest by-product of construction of big dams and power plants. Political and social debates have stifled the growth of nuclear power in India.

With an entire pandora’s box to contain, the situation in this sector though discouraging shows some spurts of progress. Introduction of renewable energy was the biggest step taken by the country in this respect. Rural areas present ideal locations for solar plant setups. A village in Bihar, Dharnai, recently went all –solar for its electricity needs. Though initial investments are high, communities can reap the benefits of solar installation upwards of 25 years. This trend has led to several solar powered plants all over the country promoting the idea of a distributed grid. With traditional methods stating a centralized grid to provide power through long transmission lines to all nooks and crannies of the nation, the development of the renewables energy sector has led to discussions and debates on the distributed grid. Wind farms and PV based farms are a good source of energy locally, no heavy losses have to be faced for long transmission and the smaller micro grid is highly reliable. Thus the huge interconnection and network of T&D gives way to smaller self-sustained networks that may/may not exchange energy with the national grid according to their needs. This method is highly popular among social organizations working in rural areas and the MNRE itself. Blackouts like the one in 2012 can be compensated for by local communities on their own. While availability of energy for PV due to rainy and cloudy days and Wind farms, due to lack of wind is a constant source of criticism, such micro-grids have been successful in general. There are several alternatives to coal and other non-renewable energy sources such as tidal, ocean thermal etc. Tidal energy is being experimented with currently as India is blessed with a vast coastline; future projects are viable in this field. On the consumers end, subsidies are present for installation of PV and solar thermal solutions at private homes. Smart meters are now being deployed for reliable metering and billing. Though dynamic pricing is still far, this can be considered in the future to advocate judicious use of electricity in urban centres. A lot of distribution companies have been working to change old and unreliable network equipment with the latest ones. Conscientious work on both the public and the institutional side is required here. Many rural areas though still devoid of electricity are seeing benefits under the National Rural Electrification Scheme (the name is actually in Hindi) to electrify and provide subsidised power to over one lakh un-electrified villages.

By the year 2020, a large part of the infrastructure will come to depend on electric energy – both industry and consumer. India’s power consumption will be double of what it was in 2009 and the peak power deficit will depend on the policies and plans that need restructuring. The Indian railway which is already a major consumer is still adding to the electrified tracks and will present a huge load for the sector. With several smart cities planned, as stated in the present budget, the demand of power is likely to shoot in the next six years. Though, projections have been considered in the capacity addition planning, efficient and dynamic usage is what is required. Losses need to be curbed to a bare minimum. If AT&C losses were to remain as high, India will still be losing a lot of energy and in this sense wasting natural resources. Addition of electric vehicles is still a minor concern in India as the market for such is very small. Focus should be on empowering the rural regions with reliable electricity. It is a shame to see kerosene lamp lit houses after 67 years of Independence. Energy disparities need to be reduced. The society has come to depend on electricity to be as essential as other basic needs and that is why the government needs to work to guarantee this right. As data from the 2011 census shows that nearly 70% of the people still live in rural areas, do not forget who the ‘true aam aadmi’ is. While special laws are in place for theft of electricity, actions are the need of the hour to bring the consumer to toe the regulations. A new government has taken the seat at the centre. Changes are taking place, but at what pace, is yet to be seen.

The Indian economy surges ahead hand in hand with growth in the energy sector, but to be able to sustain an economy that is forecasted to grow to a mammoth $5 trillion in 2020 is a huge challenge. In this growth, as an engineer, one only hopes that whatever the situation is in six years, the right to reliable electricity is availed for by all the citizens by then!

-Anurag Arya

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